Monday 12 March 2018

Could a shortage of HGV drivers undermine the viability of AI’s plans?

Profit margins are slim in the sand and gravel business. Haulage costs are significant; "the OFT considered that it is economical to transport aggregates around 30 miles" 4.15.

Any material dug from Straitgate Farm would entail a 46 mile round-trip for processing, before any onward haulage to its final destination; 46 miles extra to a normal sand and gravel quarry operation where the material is processed on site.

The bad news for Aggregate Industries is that haulage costs are on the increase because of a national shortage of drivers. The RHA says:
The UK haulage industry is currently facing a shortage of between 45,000 and 50,000 HGV drivers and we as an industry need to face this challenge head-on

Companies are plainly worried. Even AI. The same company whose plans for Straitgate would involve some 105,000 truck movements is even touting driverless trucks as one answer:
“It is therefore vital that we embrace the driverless truck concept and the positive impact it could bring. Although it is still very much in the embryonic stage, it could play a crucial role, if utilised correctly and safely, in ensuring we have the resource required to keep up with an escalating level of demand.”
We’re obviously not going to see driverless trucks hauling sand and gravel along narrow Devon B roads any time soon; many think the commercial rollout of driverless trucks is 'decades away'. Human drivers would be needed for the operation AI proposes at Straitgate - an operation the company says would last 10-12 years.

And who knows what the haulage landscape will look like in 5 years time, let alone 12? Will deliveries of sand and gravel then be competing for the same drivers that put food on our supermarket shelves?