Monday, 20 July 2015

AI is overstating the saleable resource by at least 500,000 tonnes

By combining Aggregate Industries' geological map with AMEC’s maximum groundwater map, the available resource at Straitgate Farm has now been recalculated to a higher degree of certainty, confirming our earlier estimate. Here’s the data - others are welcome to verify the figures:

AI claims it has a total potential resource of "almost 1.66 million tonnes" 3.8 at Straitgate Farm, having apparently already factored in the 1 metre maintained above the water table to satisfy the Environment Agency. DCC is about to go out to public consultation, saying:
Policy M12 therefore provides for the supply of sand and gravel at Straitgate Farm… This site has an estimated resource of 1.66 million tonnes (comprising 1.2 million tonnes of proven resource and an estimated 0.46 million tonnes of saleable overburden) 5.4.9
But these numbers are a nonsense. As the data above shows, there’s little more than 850k tonnes of saleable resource available, before losses for face angles, and any additional standoff from the A30 and listed buildings. If, and it is an if, 200k tonnes could be worked from the overburden, then AI looks to be overstating the total available resource by at least half a million tonnes, and possibly much much more.

This shortfall is a huge deal. It’s one thing overstating the number of trees planted, overstating the problems with nearby processing, overstating the compliance with planning policy, understating the impact of the proposal; it’s another matter if we can’t even trust AI's resource figures - the very thing this is supposed to be about.