Wednesday 4 December 2019

Wow. ‘Only AI can be trusted to provide data on cows’

In the recent post Bovine movements revisited – more than 2 years on we explained how Aggregate Industries has found itself in a pickle with cows, how its proposal to quarry Straitgate Farm would result in increased livestock movements across the B3174 Exeter Road to access replacement grazing.

Aggregate Industries' Transport Assessment has been tasked with looking at the implications of such movements. One line on the subject of the "Dairy Farm Operation" – with our emphasis – reads:
3.2.7 Should further data be issued directly to either the Mineral Planning Authority or Highway Authority without prior knowledge of the applicant and landowner (Aggregate Industries UK) then it is recommended that this information is treated as invalid unless it is specifically derived from the agreed data set initially provided by the Tenant Farmer which represents the worst case.
In other words, only Aggregate Industries – purveyor of everything truthful – can be trusted to provide the numbers when it comes to cows. What a joke.

What's Aggregate Industries worried about? That Devon County Council's planners can’t decide for themselves how valid or invalid information might be? That someone might spoil the show? That someone might let the cow out the bag, and tell it as it really is?

Remember, this is the company that conveniently forgot to mention the 150 cows in the first place. This is the company that has already produced a whole raft of fiction for the rest of the planning application without batting an eyelid.

But paragraph 3.2.7 already has a problem with truth. Currently dairy herd movements across the B3174 do not need to occur daily – in fact hardly ever. However, the Tenant Farmer's Land Agent has NOT agreed that the numbers they provided are "worst case", in fact – as we've already posted – far from it:
In the event that no cow tracks were installed at Straitgate, and in time that no additional cubicle housing were erected to house the dairy herd these movements would need to occur daily.
Aggregate Industries has not offered to provide cubicle housing. So much for the validity of that claim. But it's the paragraph preceding 3.2.7 above that we wanted to focus on here, where the company and its traffic consultants actually claim to know better than the Tenant Farmer – again, our emphasis:
3.2.6 Whilst the crossing times have been advised by the Tenant Farmer it should be recognised that the herd will move at the speed of the dominant cow and therefore crossing times may be less than those stated (the 15 minute delay representing the maximum period before the Farmer splits the crossing and is therefore unaffected by the speed of the cows). Dairy herds of similar size have been observed at other farms in Devon crossing a similar distance, without splitting the herd, in 4 minutes.
How valid is this information? Do Aggregate Industries and Horizon Consulting have expertise on such matters? Have they been trained in dominant cow theory, or are they talking bull? Given that Horizon raised the matter, let's look at what's said about dominant cows:
4. The majority of the dominant cows are at the front of the herd, but a significant number are present throughout the herd including the rear group: It is important that cows have space at all times to keep their distance and avoid forced interaction with cows around them of similar or higher dominance. Response: Don’t put pressure on the rear cows in the herd.
5. Dominant cows set the walking speed of the herd. Pressure on the rear cows on the track or by the backing gate causes the rear group to compact because they won’t overtake the dominant cows in front of them. The front cows are almost unaffected and so don’t walk any faster - they continue at their own speed. Response: Don’t put pressure on the rear cows in a herd.
The message seems clear: don't hurry cows – they go at their own speed. Anyone who's watched cows will know this for themselves. The timings put forward by the Tenant Farmer will no doubt have also included time for setting out and clearing away any barriers, and clearing muck off the road.

With Aggregate Industries' 4-minute claim in mind, let's look at cows crossing a road elsewhere in Devon, to watch the dominant cow theory in action:



Aggregate Industries and friends would of course recommend that this information is treated as invalid.