Sales of sand and gravel in Devon declined by 10% in 2018, according to figures just released by Devon County Council – from 598,000 tonnes to 541,000 tonnes. Contrast this to the national situation where, according to the MPA, "total sales of land-won sand and gravel increased by 2.9% in 2018".
We posted about figures for 2017 and 2016 in AI’s Blackhill closing down sale distorts Devon’s S&G sales figures for 2017 and Devon sand and gravel sales down 14% in 2016. Previous figures can be found on the Devon reserves page.
At the end of 2018, Devon's sand and gravel reserves (material already with permission to be extracted) stood at 4.885 million tonnes – a drop over 12 months that was greater than the level of sales, after Aggregate Industries "lost" some 700k tonnes or more – as we posted in AI has lost sand and gravel reserves AGAIN, this time at Hillhead.
The 4.885 million tonne figure provides a landbank of 9.7 years, based on the 10 year average sales figure of 504,000 tonnes. The Devon Minerals Plan runs a further 15 years until 2033. There could therefore be a potential shortfall of 2.7 million tonnes (15x0.504 - 4.885) at the end of this period.
Two sites have been allocated in the Plan to cover any shortfall: Straitgate is identified as having up to 1.2 million tonnes – if no unquarried buffer is maintained above the maximum water table to protect water supplies; Penslade is identified as having up to 8 million tonnes. Aggregate Industries owns both sites.
Whilst Devon has more than provided for its friends in the aggregates industry to cover any potential shortfall – and even now has nearly 10 years’ supply of sand and gravel at current rates – elsewhere, whilst preparing its mineral plan in 2018, Warwickshire admitted that "falling demand for sand and gravel means it needs to provide almost two million tonnes less than its original estimate."
Because estimates can be wrong. In 1967, Devon’s planning authority was forecasting annual sales of sand and gravel of "2.11 million tons" by the year 2000. Sales are now less than a quarter of that figure.
It is noteworthy that the 2018 sales figure is 23% less than the finger-in-the-air projection DCC made in the 6th LAA – as we addressed in Is DCC's LAA living in LAA LAA land? – the so-called housing trajectory scenario "to 'stress test' the capacity of Devon’s landbanks of land-won aggregates to cope with increased sales that mirror the predicted housing trajectory over the next ten years."
